The (apparently) thriving world of smuggled smokes
Illicit tobacco might now make up more than a quarter of New Zealand’s tobacco market. There are no wholly reliable numbers on the size of illicit markets. Read more
Eric Crampton is Chief Economist with the New Zealand Initiative.
He applies an economist’s lens to a broad range of policy areas, from devolution and housing policy to student loans and environmental policy. He served on Minister Twyford’s Urban Land Markets Research Group and on Minister Bishop’s Housing Economic Advisory Group.
Most recently, he has been looking at devolution to First Nations in Canada.
He is a regular columnist with Stuff and with Newsroom; his economic and policy commentary appears across most media outlets. He can also be found on Twitter at @ericcrampton.
Phone: +64 4 499 0790
Illicit tobacco might now make up more than a quarter of New Zealand’s tobacco market. There are no wholly reliable numbers on the size of illicit markets. Read more
There’s a very old saying that taxation is the science of plucking the chicken without making it squawk. The earliest form of the saying seems to go back to a 1766 letter from French economist Anne Robert Jacques Turgot to David Hume – though the exact origins are disputed. Read more
Dr Eric Crampton talked to Corin Dann on RNZ's Morning Report about Labour's proposed NZ Future Fund, alongside Simplicity co-founder Sam Stubbs. Dr Crampton raised concerns about the fund's restrictions on asset sales and questioned whether it would create economic fragility rather than resilience, arguing that the $800 million in diverted dividends would need to be replaced through spending cuts or tax increases. Read more
New Zealand has an awful lot of odd little cartels. At least if we define ‘cartels’ using an economist’s definition rather than a lawyer’s definition. Read more
Some things that sound simple wind up being a bit messier than expected. Keeping kids off of social media sounds simple. Read more
Last year, Canadian First Nations leaders came to Tuahiwi marae, just north of Christchurch, for the third hui-ā-motu. They explained how they have been using their self-governing autonomy, which sounds a lot like rangatiratanga, to build economic self-determination. Read more
Not long ago, doing anything on Canada’s Indian Reserves was almost as hard as doing anything on whenua Māori. Here, the roughly six percent of the country held under Māori land tenure is beset by regulatory difficulty far worse than that bedevilling the rest of New Zealand. Read more
New Zealand has a bad habit of trying to do everything everywhere all at once. It means national-level policy takes giant swings. Read more
Wellington (Wednesday, 1 October 2025) – Canadian First Nations are helping tackle Canada’s housing crisis through council-like authority over their own land. A new report highlights this proven Canadian turnaround success story and draws lessons for New Zealand. Read more
In this episode, Oliver talks to Eric Crampton, the New Zealand Initiative's chief economist, about his latest report Building Nations examining Canadian First Nations' experiences with autonomous land development and what New Zealand might learn from them. They discuss how Canadian reserves transformed from heavily regulated, impoverished areas into thriving self-governing communities that are now solving urban housing crises through major development projects like the Squamish Nation's apartment towers in downtown Vancouver. Read more
Canadian First Nations are helping tackle Canada’s housing crisis through council-like authority over their own land. Our new report highlights this proven Canadian turnaround success story and draws lessons for New Zealand. Read more
Dr Eric Crampton talked to Charlotte Cook on RNZ about US President Donald Trump's repeated threat to impose 100% tariffs on foreign films. He explained that such tariffs would be practically impossible to implement on digital services like films, but suggested the threat could provide an opportunity for countries like New Zealand to negotiate an international agreement to scale back film production subsidies. Listen below. Read more
Dr Eric Crampton talked to Ryan Bridge on Newstalk ZB about the Reserve Bank's recent self-review, which found the bank was too slow to raise interest rates after COVID-19. He argued the Reserve Bank should have recognised earlier that it was dealing with a supply shock rather than a demand problem, noting that excessive money printing in response to COVID's economic disruption drove inflation to 7.3% and required painful interest rate hikes to bring it back under control. Read more
A lot of changes are coming in competition policy. Last week, the government announced a package of reforms that, overall, set the Commerce Commission on a more activist tack. Read more
Wellington (Monday, 22 September 2026) - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been unfairly scapegoated for the current recession when it was simply doing its job of bringing inflation under control, according to new research from The New Zealand Initiative. The research note, Monetary Policy Without Mates, reveals that while the RBNZ fought to tame inflation that peaked at nearly 8%, the government's fiscal policy worked against these efforts – forcing interest rates to stay higher for longer. Read more