What I really love about the rest of the world is that as it gets crazier, we stay the same sane.

Or at least mostly so.

America has survived its first month of Donald Trump and so have we. But I am glad to be watching it from a fair distance.

Trump’s presidency thus far has set a framework for disaster yet to come rather than causing any immediate ones – except in immigration policy. We will return to that.

In other areas, we could easily have expected worse. And this is borne out in the stock markets.

In November, I would have predicted worsening S&P futures and increasing volatility. Quants were already building algorithms to trade based on whether Trump’s tweets predicted good things or bad things for particular companies. And a looming protectionist turn would ultimately be to the strong detriment of the American economy.

But people with money on the line seem to disagree. The S&P has seen strong growth since the election; S&P futures aren’t predicting any immediate impending disaster. The expected gains from tax cuts and deregulation seem to outweigh everything else. The VIX, which tracks expected stock market volatility, shows expectations of increased volatility. But even there, the expected rise in volatility only takes us back to levels experienced in 2015: and that despite the prediction markets saying that there is about one chance in five that Trump will be impeached this year.

It’s always good to test your expectations against what people with more skin in the game think. And those traders aren’t expecting catastrophe. I’m mildly terrified about what the gutting of the National Security Council means if any real challenge emerged but nothing obvious in the markets suggests storms ahead.

Immigration is another matter.

Less than welcome

I lived in the US on a Green Card before moving to New Zealand in 2003. Even then, it was plain that even permanent residents were less than welcome. Migrants, whether permanent residents or otherwise, were supposed to carry their immigration documents at all times to present if asked. That meant always carrying your passport. It was hardly bad for me because Canadians aren’t regularly under suspicion of driving while not-American. But it did grate.

Since the election, America has gotten decidedly less friendly. Trump’s travel restrictions on visa holders will work its way through the courts one way or another but the message is already plain: You are not welcome. That message has been clear to the refugees who have walked the frozen border from North Dakota to Manitoba. And tech sector companies have been eying shifting premises to Vancouver in case their employees, on H1-B visas, are no longer able to work in Trump’s America.

All of this makes New Zealand a more attractive proposition for migrants. The crazier America gets, the better New Zealand looks by contrast.

And we may be missing a trick here. New Zealand’s immigration system puts a lot of emphasis on skilled migration. One big part of the points system for skilled migrants is having a New Zealand job offer. But the mechanics can be opaque for Kiwi employers, worried about the risk of extending somebody an offer who isn’t even (yet) allowed to work in New Zealand.

Workers in America on an H1-B visa are a strong natural fit for New Zealand’s skilled migrant category. They have already been vetted to ensure they pose no security risk. They are employed in highly skilled occupations, where the normal requirements of the role require at least a bachelor’s degree. And employers are not allowed to offer positions to H1-B workers unless the role offers a salary of at least $US60,000.

It is a myth that immigrants must drive down wages of the native-born but it would be doubly so for the kinds of skilled migrants working on H1-B visas. Granting H1-B holders one-year visas allowing them to look for work in New Zealand, with a clear and easy path from there to the skilled migrant visa and then to residence would be a great way of boosting New Zealand’s IT sector.

Universities' chance

Meanwhile, another crisitunity presents itself in academia.

Academics on EU passports working in British universities expect to be kicked out of the UK with Brexit. And the US is a far less appealing destination for international students who now can reasonably expect to be detained at airports and subject to being kicked out of the country at the whim of the president.

American universities have long drawn the world’s best international students because they are simply the best in the world. New Zealand is a few steps down the ranks. But where America becomes less appealing to foreign students, and the UK is less able to train them because it is losing academics, countries like Canada, Australia and New Zealand could do well. Canadian universities have been jumping to help accommodate international students displaced from America. New Zealand has been missing this trick, so far.

But taking advantage of the crisitunity requires fixing serious problems here at home. New Zealand’s continuing regulatory disaster in housing builds both political resistance to immigration and real problems in being able to accommodate skilled migrants.

Getting the country’s land use planning system out of the madhouse is critical in letting New Zealand do well by its natural comparative advantage: being islands of sanity in a maddening world.