Spare a thought for the RBNZ’s Beowulf

Insights Newsletter
21 November, 2014

There are many emotions that Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler is likely to provoke, depending on the state of your bank account, but sympathy for this modern Beowulf is hardly the first choice.

Yet that is exactly what I felt for the technocrat last week when he announced that he was thinking about delving deeper into his economic toolbox in the hopes of finding a gizmo that could zap more heat out of the housing market.

The announcement was not so much an admission that his last turn at the Credit Freeze Ray (LVRs) had not worked, only that the beast he was trying to slay was far tougher than originally thought. This time the threat is not just the Grendel of first home buyers and their uppity aspirations of property ownership, but the more wily and dangerous monster of would-be landlords.

These more pernicious speculators are willing to bet that the value of residential property will grow by more than the gap between what they receive in rental income and their borrowing costs. No doubt many wait with great anticipation to see the exotic weapon Wheeler intends to use against them.

Although, having gained some inkling that it is going to take more than one shot to tame house price inflation, presumably the RBNZ boffins back at the lab are working on the next blaster too. This will have to be a much more sophisticated device - one that singles out foreign property investors and zaps them without hitting New Zealand residents with strange sounding names. Krupp for instance.

It is easy to see this escalate into an arms race, culminating in the Governor himself vetting and signing off each individual property transaction.

But have some pity for our version of the tragic hero. Wheeler has little choice but to reach for bigger and more complex tools to shore up the economy against credit risks because he cannot implement the one thing that will slay all his monsters: increased housing supply.

That is the role of an entirely different creature all together: politicians. Thankfully, the right supply-focussed sounds seem to be emanating from the Beehive. But we need to keep up the pressure on this front, and not get distracted by the next shiny contraption that gets carted out, or the side show beasts it is supposed to target.

Stay in the loop: Subscribe to updates