Globally, growth in productivity and GDP has stalled. Much of the West and Japan suffer from rapidly deteriorating demographics and crippling levels of debt. The sustainability of China’s economic model is questionable and no progress has been made towards political pluralism.

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the very few large regions in the world with any real likelihood of sustained high growth. Perhaps surprisingly, this simply requires a continuation of current trends.

For the last 15 years Africa has been one of the fastest growing regions in the world. Excluding China, it is currently outpacing its emerging market peers notwithstanding the hit from lower commodity prices. The economic improvement has been matched by a range of social indicators. This progress has been driven by greater democracy and improved governance, reduced conflict, greater macroeconomic discipline and a dramatically improved business environment.

The really exciting part of the story is Africa’s massive scale and its scope for further major improvement. By 2035 Africa is expected to have the largest working-age population in the world - creating 450 million new workers between 2010 and 2035 alone.

Africa is also currently undergoing the largest urbanisation in history. Despite the improvements of the last 15 years, Africa’s potential for improving governance, infrastructure, health and education is vastly higher than anywhere else. Improvements in political accountability and a more assertive electorate mean further major changes are highly likely.

For Kiwi businesses, Africa represents a vast untapped new market with a largely common English language and shared Commonwealth heritage. A number of Kiwi businesses are successfully exploiting this opportunity while barriers to entry remain low. Africa also represents an important diversification opportunity away from the low growth of New Zealand’s traditional markets and from the increasing structural risks in Asia.

However, the rise of Africa and India will also mean that the labour market and income distribution pressure in the West arising from globalisation will likely continue for many decades.

Will New Zealand seize the trade and employment opportunity arising from this dynamic new multi-polar world or will isolationist and protectionist policies prevail?

Stephen Jennings is the Founder and CEO of Rendeavour. On 14 July, he will deliver The New Zealand Initiative’s dinner lecture. Tickets are available here.