It was always going to be a bittersweet victory: whoever won the Labour leadership battle would immediately be thrust into the war of winning back voters. And boy has Andrew Little been thrust into a war: the Labour Party has faced a stunning defeat domestically, within the wider context of an international left-wing demise.
 
In fact, Jason Wilson at The Guardian notes the anti-democratic right has won control of the English-speaking world. Even worse for Little, the current Key government is not only right-wing, but is what Wilson sees as an anomaly among its international peers: the Key government is popular.
 
But if Wilson’s allegation that the right is anti-democratic is true, why does the National Party remain well-supported by voters?
 
Perhaps because rolling back the state may be seen by some to be anti-democratic (particularly without a clear mandate), but it may be popular because it ensures the voting majority does not have undue influence over the lives of others.
 
The Freeman recently published an article entitled Too dumb for democracy? The article points to a recent Ipsos MORI survey which looked at the gap between perception and reality when it comes to public policy. For instance, Germans think that 14% of teenage girls give birth each year, when it’s actually only 0.4%. Or that even though 2% of the Australian population is Muslim, Australians believe it is 18%. The point is that most people are very bad at making estimations outside of their local context.
 
This is concerning as it is voter perception – rather than facts – that may sway parties vying for the populist vote. Overestimating immigrants “stealing jobs and land” in New Zealand; figures on child poverty; whether we have a manufacturing crisis; or average incomes after tax and transfers; all have huge implications for what voters demand of government.
 
The Key government has managed to (largely) resist pandering to the “public ignorance” that normally influences democracy. But this doesn’t mean the government has instilled an authoritarian dictatorship either.
 
Instead, the government has devolved freedom and responsibility to those with the specialised knowledge to make decisions in their area of expertise: businesses make employment decisions; charities and NGOs make decisions on social service provisions; families make decisions on how they raise their kids.
 
The challenge for Little then, is to make the difficult decision to either capitalise on voter misperceptions, or convince voters that they don’t actually want the greater freedom and independence they now enjoy.