The record net migration loss of 60,100 New Zealand citizens in the year to May 2024 is an orange warning light for New Zealand. But fears that it represents a worrying brain drain are statistically premature.

Those are the main conclusions in my research note “Are Flying Kiwis Fleeing?” that the New Zealand Initiative published this week.

Australia is a serious competitor for New Zealand talent. There has been a net loss of New Zealand citizens to Australia in 64 of the 69 years from 1950 to 2018. Provisional Australian statistics for 2023 put the number of New Zealand-born residents of Australia at 598,000.

While the net outflow likely incorporates an element of ‘bounce-back’ from the Covid-induced travel disruption in 2020 and 2021, it has accelerated in recent months. This is something to be watched.

The outflow is a reminder that New Zealand faces real problems in the provision of infrastructure, housing, health, education and employment for New Zealand residents.

The government needs to make significant progress on multiple fronts to improve New Zealanders' prospects and perceptions of their future at home.

The outflow is not a red light because New Zealand attracted net arrivals of 142,900 non-New Zealand citizens in the year to May 2024. The overall net gain of 82,800 migrants in that year added 1.6% to the resident population.

Neither is there a red light from a brain drain perspective. Visa requirements for entry to New Zealand have a skill focus. Immigrants to New Zealand tend to have higher educational qualifications than the native-born population, and they outnumber those leaving. Comparable statistics for outflows are lacking.

Nor does the age distribution of those recently migrating flash a red light. It is consistent with long-term trends.

Even so, the scale of the recent net inflow could be putting pressure on housing and other infrastructure. It makes the government’s measures to free up the supply of housing even more important.

In addition, research has found little evidence of significant negative impacts on employment or wages for native-born New Zealanders due to immigration.

These migration flows highlight the importance of effective action to improve infrastructure, housing, health, education and employment for New Zealand residents.

Those improvements would help attract global skills and capital while retaining some New Zealanders who might otherwise leave.

Dr Bryce Wilkinson's research note, Are flying Kiwi's fleeing?, was published on 23 July.