President Trump promised to drain the swamp, fight bureaucratic overreach, and defend American interests. His policies resonated with voters.  

But his treatment of Canada, America’s closest neighbour, defies rational explanation. 

Trump’s assault on Canada exposes a grim geopolitical strategy in ways his murky Ukraine policy never could. No historical complexities blur the picture. No security issues cloud our judgment. Here stands America’s closest ally – sharing the world’s longest peaceful border, buying more US goods than anyone, fighting alongside American troops for generations – facing economic warfare from a supposed friend. 

Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods took effect this month. But not before he threatened to double tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50 per cent in response to threatened retaliation from Ontario. Trump also warned he would “permanently shut down” Canada’s car industry. 

Trump’s apparent aim is to force Canada to become America’s “51st state.” He telegraphed this ambition by repeatedly referring to Prime Minister Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau.” Recent history suggests we should take his words seriously.  

Trump’s aggression strains credulity. There are no legitimate grievances. No security threats.Just pressure against a peaceful neighbour. His justification is economic nationalism – using tariffs to force jobs back home. But this is economically misguided. It will harm both nations. Nor can it justify his territorial claims. 

Wall Street recognised this immediately. Stocks suffered their worst two-day drop since August, only recovering slightly when Ontario backed down. 

Mark Carney, selected as Liberal Party leader amid this crisis and poised to replace Trudeau as Prime Minister, faced an impossible choice: surrender sovereignty or watch methodical economic harm unfold. His pledge to fight “until Americans show us respect” contrasts sharply with Washington’s hostility. 

All this sends a clear signal to America’s adversaries. Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran watch as the US threatens its closest ally. They know a United States without friends stands alone. 

For New Zealand, the implications are sobering. The US’s protectionist tariffs of the 1930s deepened the Great Depression through global retaliation. Today’s trade wars risk similar damage.  

Our economy relies heavily on agricultural exports, with nearly NZ$4 billion annually in meat and dairy products shipped to the US. Similar tariffs, combined with disruptions from a global trade war and a US recession, could slash GDP by 1–2% and devastate rural communities. 

When even Canada faces economic threats, New Zealand must prepare for a world where rules matter less than might.