Political campaigns often hinge on promises, and the art of selling a vision for the future is a crucial skill for any politician.


But what happens when that vision strays deep into the realm of fantasy?


The line separating hope and deception can be perilously thin, and Labour provides a case study of how unrealistic promises can come back to haunt a government.


That said, there is a danger for all parties – left, right and centre – to promise more than they could ever realistically deliver. So especially in the context of this year’s election and a possible change of government, we should learn a lesson about what went wrong last time.


In 2017, Labour campaigned on grandiose ideals but also pledged fiscal restraint.


Voters, perhaps tired of the status quo or charmed by the charisma of the party’s leadership, chose to believe.


Labour’s campaign was highly aspirational. From abolishing child poverty to making rivers swimmable, from the ‘nuclear-free moment’ of tackling climate change to building Auckland light rail, and from making housing affordable to bringing tertiary education to more students: there was no shortage of lofty pledges and promises.


But Labour wanted to achieve all these goals on a shoestring budget. In the end, however, it increased spending substantially while failing, mostly, on delivery.


Covid does not explain this failure. As we show in our new paper, Labour’s costly lack of delivery was well-established before Covid and continued as Covid abated.


Future historians may conclude that the Sixth Labour Government collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions.


There was no coherent plan. There was no realism behind their ‘Let’s do this’ rhetoric of ambition.


The damage this Government has created is wide-ranging. Not least is the frustration and cynicism it has created around democracy.


When a party’s pledges are shown to be based more on fantasy than on achievable goals, not only does the party lose credibility, but it also sows seeds of doubt in the political system itself. And that trust, once lost, is hard to regain.


Labour’s conundrum should serve as a cautionary tale for politicians everywhere – National included. It might be tempting to win votes through grandiose plans, but the costs of over-promising and under-delivering can be dire.


New Zealand deserved better last time, and it deserves better now.


Dr Oliver Hartwich is the Executive Director of The New Zealand Initiative. He co-authored ‘The Deficit Diaries: Six years of red’ with Dr Bryce Wilkinson, available here.